Indiana voter turnout: A harbinger of things to come in 2024?

Managing Editor, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business

After 51% of registered Hoosier voters turned out in 2018, the 2022 midterms saw 39.6% of registered voters cast a ballot.

Although 2023 is an "off" year in the American election cycle, the specter of the 2024 election is already looming large over the Hoosier state.¹ While most eyes have turned to the emerging race for the Republican presidential nomination, it is also worthwhile to look at our recent past and examine Indiana’s voter turnout in the last midterm and presidential elections. Data on how many ballots were cast in these elections is critical to campaigns and grassroots voter outreach organizations in their efforts to reduce barriers to voting and mobilize the electorate.

In the aftermath of the 2018 midterm election, there was an overwhelming sense that something truly monumental had occurred in Indiana. The election saw 51% of registered voters in the state cast a ballot, the highest turnout rate in an Indiana midterm election since 1994. More than 2.3 million Hoosiers voted in the election, contributing to the highest turnout rate for a midterm election in the United States since 1914.

As the 2022 midterms drew closer, national pollsters worked to determine if voters would remain energized or if high voter turnout in 2018 was a fluke rather than the trend. The answer, as it turns out, is somewhat surprising.

On a national level, voter turnout in the 2022 midterms nearly matched the staggering data from 2018. In total, 52.2% of citizens over the age of 18 cast a ballot, only 1.2 percentage points less than the historic numbers from 2018 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Citizens over 18 that voted in U.S. midterm elections

Note: Voter turnout percentages in Figure 1 are calculated as the percent of U.S. citizens over the age of 18 that voted. This is not the percentage of registered voters that voted.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau voting and registration statistics

However, the story differed in Indiana.

Although neither ballot included a gubernatorial race and each determined a Senate seat, voter turnout was back to the norm in the 2022 midterms.² After 51% of registered Hoosier voters turned out in 2018 (2,308,258 voters), the 2022 midterms saw 39.6% of registered voters (1,887,024 voters) cast a ballot (see Figure 2). This occurred despite an increase of 5.2% in registered voters between the two elections (from 4,526,663 registered voters in 2018 to 4,760,880 in 2022).

Figure 2: Voter turnout for midterm elections in Indiana

Note: Voter turnout percentages in Figure 2 are calculated as the percent of registered voters that voted. This is not the percent of citizens over the age of 18 that voted.
Source: IN.gov Indiana Election Division, Voter registration and turnout statistics

Spencer County, which boasted a 51.2% voter turnout rate, registered the highest voter turnout in the 2022 midterm election. This was down a surprising 10.3 percentage points from the 2018 midterms.³ Spencer County was followed by Union (51%), Crawford (50.9%), Brown (50.8%) and Floyd (49.5%) counties to close out the top five in 2022 voter turnout.

Tippecanoe County had the lowest voter turnout rate with 32.2% of registered voters exercising their right to vote. Marion County, the most populous county in the state, had the second-lowest turnout percentage with 34%, followed by Elkhart (36%), Dearborn (36.1%) and Grant (36.4%) counties (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Indiana county voter turnout rates for the 2022 midterm election

Note: Voter turnout percentages in Figure 3 are calculated as the percent of registered voters that voted. This is not the percent of citizens over the age of 18 that voted.
Source: IN.gov Indiana Election Division, Voter registration and turnout statistics

With the exception of Union County, every county in the state experienced a decrease in voter turnout between the two midterm elections.⁴ In fact, 52 of the state’s 92 counties saw a double-digit decrease in voter turnout percentage points.

Perhaps more pertinent to the upcoming presidential election, however, are the turnout rates of the 2020 election. All told, 64.6% of registered Hoosier voters cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election, the highest turnout rate for Indiana since 1992 (when an astounding 73.8% voted).⁵ For the first time in the state’s history, more than 3 million ballots were cast, the majority of which (61%) were absentee ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hamilton County recorded the highest voter turnout rate with 75.4% of registered voters casting a ballot. Hamilton County was followed by Wells (74.8%), Whitley (74.2%), Hancock (74%) and Greene (73.7%) counties.

On the other end of the spectrum, Delaware and Madison counties each recorded voter turnout rates of 57.7%, the lowest turnout rate in the state. Marion County again ranked near the bottom of the list with a voter turnout rate of 58.9%, followed by St. Joseph (59.2%) and Vigo (59.8%) counties (see Figure 4). All but two counties, Dearborn and LaGrange, registered voter turnout rates that were higher than the ones they recorded in the 2016 presidential election.

Figure 4: Indiana county voter turnout rates for the 2020 presidential election

Note: Voter turnout percentages in Figure 4 are calculated as the percent of registered voters that voted. This is not the percent of citizens over the age of 18 that voted.
Source: IN.gov Indiana Election Division, Voter registration and turnout statistics

What these numbers mean for the 2024 election remains to be seen. Will the Indiana electorate remain as energized as in 2020, eager to vote for both the president and the governor? Or will the turnout rate sink back down to a more “normal” figure, like the ones seen in 2012 (58.5%) or 2016 (58.1%)? Regardless, voter outreach groups should attempt to harness the energy of the last presidential election in hopes of mobilizing voters and increasing turnout rates next fall.

For more Indiana election statistics, including absentee numbers and turnout rates, visit the Indiana Election Division website.