Indiana births continue to fall

Senior Demographer, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business

Every state in the U.S. has seen a double-digit drop in fertility between 2007 and 2023.

Indiana recorded 79,000 births in 2023, which ranks as the third-lowest annual tally since 1946 (only 2020 and 1987 were lower) and continues the state’s steep decline in fertility that began 16 years ago with the onset of the Great Recession (see Figure 1).  

Figure 1: Indiana’s annual births

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

This trend is not unique to Indiana. In fact, the U.S. and Indiana had roughly identical fertility rates in 2007, but since that point, the nation’s 21% decline in this measure has far outpaced Indiana’s 15% slide over the same period (see Figure 2).  

Figure 2: Annual fertility rates for the U.S. and Indiana

Note: The general fertility rate refers to the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44.
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Looking around the country, every state has seen a double-digit drop in fertility between 2007 and 2023. As Figure 3 shows, states in the western U.S. have seen the sharpest falls, led by Utah (38% decline), Arizona (-35%), Nevada (-34%) and New Mexico (-33%). Meanwhile, Indiana’s change over this period ranks as the 8th-smallest decline among states.

Figure 3: Percent change in fertility rates for all states, 2007-2023

Note: The fertility rate refers to the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44.
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Even though Indiana’s decline in births has been less severe than many other states, this trend has still had a significant impact on the size and age structure of the state’s population. To help underscore this point, if Indiana’s average age-specific fertility rates between 2006 and 2008 had held steady over the last 16 years, the state would have had approximately 151,000 more births over this span. In 2023 alone, the difference between “expected births” at these earlier rates and the state’s actual count was more than 15,000 (see Figure 4).  

Figure 4: Annual number of Indiana births compared to expected births at 2006-2008 rates

Source: Indiana Business Research Center, using data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

So what is driving this decline in the number of births? The rest of this article digs into this question by exploring Indiana’s fertility trends by age group, race and ethnicity.

Indiana’s age-specific fertility rates

Much of the discourse around shifting fertility trends has focused on the fact that many young adults have increasingly delayed starting a family. As Figure 5 highlights, that has been the case here in Indiana. In the early 1990s, for instance, Hoosier teens were nearly as likely to give birth as women ages 30 to 34. By 2023, however, the fertility rate for women in this latter age group is more than six times greater than that of teens. In 2007, moreover, the state’s fertility rate for women ages 20 to 24 was 28% higher than for those between ages 30 and 34. Today, the fertility rate for Hoosiers in their early 30s is now 24% higher than those in their early 20s.  

Figure 5: Indiana age-specific fertility rates

Note: Fertility rate refers to the number of births per 1,000 women in each age group.
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

For several years after the Great Recession, it seemed plausible that the decline in births was only temporary, and that women who had fewer children in their 20s would eventually offset this difference by having more children in their 30s. As this trend in ever-declining fertility approaches the two-decade mark, however, this outcome looks increasingly improbable. In fact, after years of climbing fertility for women ages 30 to 34, Indiana’s rate for this group has started to fall, too (see Figure 6). The more likely explanation for declining births is that more recent cohorts of young adults will simply have fewer children than previous cohorts.¹

Figure 6: Change in Indiana fertility rates for select age groups, 2016 to 2023

Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Shifts in fertility by race and ethnicity

Indiana has also seen dramatic changes in fertility among some race and ethnic groups in recent years. Between 2007 and 2013, for instance, fertility rates among the state’s Hispanic residents fell by 36% (see Figure 7). Beginning in 2017, however, this measure has begun to trend up again, making Indiana’s Hispanic population the only sizeable race or ethnic group in the state to show improved fertility rates in recent years.

Figure 7: Indiana fertility rates by ethnicity

Note: The general fertility rate refers to the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44.
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

While Hispanic fertility rates have begun to climb again, declines among the state’s non-Hispanic population have only accelerated. Between 2007 and 2016, fertility rates for Indiana’s non-Hispanic residents declined at an average annual rate of -0.5%. Since 2016, this pace of decline has more than tripled to -1.6% per year.

Figure 8: Indiana fertility rates by race and ethnicity

Note: Hispanic is an ethnicity, not a race. Hispanic residents may be of any race. Race groups exclude Hispanic residents of that race.
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Meanwhile, due to population growth in some of the key childbearing age groups, the number of births among Indiana’s Black residents and the “all other races” group has improved slightly despite declining fertility rates. Finally, the number of births for the state’s Hispanic population is up by more than 3,100 since 2016.

Figure 9: Indiana births by race and ethnicity

Note: Hispanic is an ethnicity, not a race. Hispanic residents may be of any race. Race groups exclude Hispanic residents of that race.
Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Conclusion

After 16 years of declining births, there are no signs of a letup in this trend any time soon. To the contrary, even with a recent rebound for the state’s Hispanic population, the overall pace of decline for Indiana’s fertility rate only seems to be accelerating.

As a result of this shift, Indiana has already seen a decline in the size of its school-age population since 2010, and our latest population projections show that this slide will likely continue over the coming decades.² This change will have far-reaching implications for the state. Many communities are already confronted with declining school enrollments, and many more will face this situation soon. Later, this trend could have impacts on areas such as the size of Indiana’s labor force and our economic growth, housing demand, the fiscal health of state and local governments and our ability to adequately support the growing ranks of retirees.
If there is no significant rebound in fertility on the horizon, the best options for dealing with these issues revolve around competing to attract more young adults to the state and improving the productivity of our workers.³

Notes

1. Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip Levine, “Will births in the U.S. rebound? Probably not.,” Brookings Institute Commentary, May 2021 www.brookings.edu/articles/will-births-in-the-us-rebound-probably-not/.
2. Matt Kinghorn, “Indiana’s school-age population projected to decline,” InContext, September-October 2024, https://www.incontext.indiana.edu/sept-oct/article2.asp.
3. Philip T. Powell, “The economic science of raising Hoosier incomes,” Indiana Business Review, Summer 2024, www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2024/summer/article3.html.