The workforce age shifts reshaping Indiana and the nation

Workforce + Education Analyst, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business

The 65+ population in the U.S. grew by 75% between 2000 and 2024. Put another way, in 2000, there was one senior for every five working-age adults; by 2024, it fell to 3.4 workers for every senior.

Over the past 25 years, nearly every U.S. state saw the share of its working-age population decline, according to U.S. Census Bureau population by age data.¹ This trend has accelerated since 2010, especially in Indiana, as the baby-boom generation more fully ages into retirement. The pace and magnitude of these shifts have varied across and within states, with significant implications for workforce capacity, economic growth and regional prosperity.

Understanding these population dynamics is critical for regional economic development planning and resource allocation. A shrinking working-age population signals potential labor force constraints, while rapid growth in the 65+ population brings additional challenges, not the least of which is increased health care demand and associated fiscal pressures.

This article examines aging trends across the states with a focus on Indiana’s unique challenges. It offers some bleak statistics: For example, 50 of 51 states (including Washington, D.C.) saw their working-age population share decline from 2010 to 2024. But it also offers some bright spots across Indiana that suggest some regions are better positioned to weather these long-term demographic shifts and maintain a competitive workforce in the decades ahead.

The national picture: Long-term declines in working-age population

Indiana is not alone when it comes to the decade-plus decline in working-age population coupled with unprecedented rapid increases in the 65+ population. Though 32 states grew their working-age population from 2010 to 2024, only one state – Utah – grew in the share of its population that is working age. As previous IBRC and U.S. Census Bureau research has found, 65+ adults outnumber children in 23 Indiana counties and nearly half of all counties in the United States, so the almost universal decline in the working-age population share is not driven by a 21st-century baby boom — it’s driven by growth in the older adult population.

Figure 1: Percentage change in working-age (WA) population, 2010-2024

Source: Author’s calculations from U.S. Census Bureau population data

The period of 2000 to 2010 far outpaced 2010 to 2024 in terms of working-age population growth: The United States grew by 20 million (11.5% growth) individuals of working age from 2000 to 2010, almost double the 11 million (5.7%) growth between 2010 and 2024. All states grew their working-age population from 2000 to 2010, compared to the 32 states that did so from 2010 to 2024. However, if we focus on the prime working-age population (ages 25-44), the period of 2010 to 2024 was better than the decade prior: 11.9% growth compared to a decline of 3.3%.

Thanks to the baby boomers’ gradual aging out of the workforce that’s accelerated since 2010, the growth in the 65+ population was an astounding 51% from 2010 to 2024, compared to 15.4% from 2000 to 2010. Overall, the 65+ population grew by 75% between 2000 and 2024. Put another way: There was one senior for every five working-age adults in 2000; by 2024, this ratio was one senior for every 3.4 working-age adults.

The Indiana picture: A star of the Midwest

While Indiana stands out among its peers in the Midwest, we aren’t exactly bucking national trends. There’s also variability within the state suggesting clear winners and losers among regions.

Figure 2 presents the indexed change in working-age, prime working-age, 65+ and total population in the United States, Indiana and its bordering states from 2000 to 2024. Total population growth slightly exceeded working-age growth, but both were far outpaced by 65+ growth.

Prime working age is about the same in 2024 as it was in 2000, despite the U-shaped 25-year journey. The story doesn’t look great compared to U.S. trends, but Indiana is the clear winner among its neighbors: In no other state has prime working age returned to its 2000 levels, and growth in both total and working-age populations is higher in Indiana than the comparison states.

Figure 2: Indexed population change by age group in the United States, Indiana and comparison states, 2000-2024

Source: Author’s calculations from U.S. Census Bureau population data

Turning back to more recent trends, Figure 3 maps the percent change in working-age population by county from 2010 to 2024. Most Indiana counties lost working-age population over the last 15 years, but the spread is huge, ranging from -15.3% in Parke County (about -1,600 people) to 37% in Boone County (about +12,600 people).

Figure 3: Working-age population percentage change by county, 2010-2024

Note: Thick black lines indicate READI region boundaries.
Source: Author’s calculations from U.S. Census Bureau population data

Table 1 presents the top and bottom five counties in terms of working-age population percentage change. Notably, all the top counties are in Central Indiana, and all are continuing to grow: Each peaked in working-age and prime working-age population in 2024, the latest year available at the time of this writing.

Of Indiana’s 92 counties, between 2010 and 2024, 20 gained working-age population and 45 gained prime working-age population. Signaling a decline that may not stop anytime soon, 76 counties experienced a peak in their working-age population before 2020, with most of this group (44) having their peak occur before 2010.

The regional picture: Statewide data obscures regional variation

Figure 4 makes the regional framing more explicit by mapping the 2010-2024 percent change in working-age population by READI region. As you may have expected, Central Indiana is leading the way at 12.4% growth, but Our Southern Indiana, which encompasses most of the Indiana part of the Louisville, KY metropolitan area, comes in second at 4.4% growth. Generally, the regions experiencing working-age population growth are anchored by metropolitan areas, but there are some exceptions, including declines in the Southwest (Evansville), Southeast (Indiana part of Cincinnati), South Bend-Elkhart and Indiana Uplands (Bloomington) READI regions, to name a few.

Figure 4: Working-age population percentage change by READI region, 2010-2024

Source: Author’s calculations from U.S. Census Bureau population data

Table 2 reproduces the previous table for each of the 15 READI regions. The regional divide is stark: Only five READI regions had any working-age growth over the last 15 years and, of these, four had a working-age peak after 2020 and only two had a prime working-age peak after 2020.

Time for an aside: How much of the statewide population growth can be attributed to Central Indiana? In short, most of it. In the past 15 years, Indiana had a net increase of 84,000 individuals of working age; Central Indiana accounted for 143,000 (170%) of this. In other words, if Central Indiana were excluded (an admittedly silly proposition), the rest of the state would have seen a net loss of -59,000.

In terms of total population over the same period, Central Indiana accounted for 70% of the state’s growth. Expanding the period to 25 years and limiting the age group to prime working age, Central Indiana outpaced the state by an astronomical 1,183%, adding almost 89,000 in population compared to statewide growth of only 7,500.

Conclusion

Taken together, these findings paint a picture of a state at a demographic crossroads. Working-age population growth has slowed as the senior population is expanding at a dramatic pace, and most Indiana counties are losing ground on the demographics that drive economic growth and prosperity: working-age and prime working-age population. These are not temporary fluctuations; they reflect the same shifts reshaping economies across the country.

Yet the Indiana numbers obscure a tale of two states. Central Indiana is not only outperforming other regions, but also effectively carrying the entire state. A handful of other regions are holding their own, but for much of the state, the trajectory is pointing downward.

The regions bucking the trend share some common threads: They’re anchored by urban centers that attract and retain working-age residents through jobs, amenities and opportunity. For the regions falling behind, the path forward may run through strategies that foster stronger connections to the state’s economic engines. Above all, these strategies must build on a region’s strengths and recognize that Indiana’s demographic challenges are not uniform — so its solutions can’t be uniform, either.