Indiana's population estimates: Strong growth continues in 2025, but signs of slowdown on the horizon

Senior Demographer, Indiana Business Research Center, Indiana University Kelley School of Business

Between 2006 and 2008, natural increase accounted for 70% of Indiana’s growth. Over the last three years, by contrast, net migration is responsible for 81% of the state’s gains.

Indiana added 38,579 residents in 2025 to reach a total population of 6.97 million, according to the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. While lower than the previous year, Indiana’s gains in 2025 still rank as the state’s seventh-largest annual increase over the last 20 years (see Figure 1 ).

Figure 1: Indiana’s annual population change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Since 2023, Indiana has had an average annual growth of more than 43,900 residents per year, which is the state’s largest increase over a three-year stretch since adding roughly 48,700 residents a year between 2006 and 2008. However, while the scale of growth is similar for these two periods, the drivers of change have shifted drastically. Between 2006 and 2008, for instance, natural increase — or the difference between births and deaths — accounted for 70% of Indiana’s growth. Over the last three years, by contrast, net migration is responsible for 81% of the state’s gains (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Components of Indiana’s population growth

Source: IBRC, using data from the CDC and the U.S. Census Bureau

As Figure 3 shows, net migration to Indiana has largely been driven by a surge in immigration in recent years. Between 2022 and 2024, Indiana had a net inflow of more than 31,000 people per year moving to the state from abroad. While this measure fell to roughly 17,900 residents in 2025, it was still the state’s leading source of population growth, accounting for 46% of Indiana’s gains last year. A 102% increase in domestic migration to Indiana in 2025 partially offset the large decline in international migration.

Figure 3: Indiana’s annual net migration by type

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Keep in mind that these 2025 estimates cover the period from July 2024 to June 2025, so population estimates will not fully capture the potential impacts of changes to immigration policy on growth until the 2026 numbers are released. However, it seems likely this measure will continue to decline sharply over the next few years at least, which will almost certainly result in slower growth overall.

All told, immigration has accounted for 64% of Indiana’s population growth so far this decade.

Another reason to expect a slowdown in growth is that it appears the post-pandemic rebound in natural population increase has peaked. During the darkest days of the pandemic in 2021, deaths slightly outnumbered births in Indiana. This measure improved over each of the next three years, culminating in a natural increase of nearly 9,200 residents in 2024. However, natural change in Indiana declined by nearly 7% last year.

With the state’s ever-aging population and its long-run decline in fertility rates, natural increase will likely continue to fall in the years ahead, with the IBRC's population projections indicating Indiana could begin to see a natural decrease in its population by 2040.¹ Declines in immigration could exacerbate this trend, as increased births to foreign-born mothers has propped-up Indiana’s birth counts in recent years.

None of these demographic dynamics are unique to Indiana, of course. In fact, within the context of the U.S., the state’s population is comparatively young and its fertility rate decline over the last two decades has been less severe than most other states. So, it’s no surprise to see that Indiana’s 0.6% rate of population growth in 2025 outpaced each of its neighbors and the U.S. as a whole (see Figure 4). Indiana’s growth rate last year ranked 22nd among states.

Figure 4: Rate of population growth for Indiana and neighboring states in 2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Around Indiana

For the third consecutive year, Boone and Hancock counties in the Indianapolis metro area were the state’s fastest-growing communities. Boone County set the pace once again in 2025 with a 2.6% growth rate while Hancock County posted a 2.4% gain.

Clark County in the Louisville metro area was next on the list with a 2.1% increase. Clark County’s numeric gain of 2,688 residents last year is its largest annual increase on record dating back to 1980, and marks only the third time over this stretch that the county has added more than 2,000 residents in a year.

Central Indiana’s Hamilton (1.9%), Johnson (1.9%), Hendricks (1.4%), Morgan (1.2%) and Madison (1.1%) counties claimed the next five spots.

Another year of relatively hefty gains for Morgan and Madison counties shows that Indy-area suburban growth continues to expand to new frontiers. Madison County — home to locales such as Anderson and Pendleton — had experienced steady decline in recent decades with its population falling by more than 3,200 between 2000 and 2020. Since 2020, however, Madison County has added 4,933 residents. Meanwhile, largely driven by growth in the Monrovia and Mooresville areas, Morgan County is experiencing a level of growth in recent years not seen since the late 1990s.

Parke County in rural west-central Indiana and Owen County in the Bloomington metro area, each with 1.1% upticks, rounded out the state’s 10 fastest-growing communities in 2025.

In terms of the largest numeric gains, Hamilton County once again led the way in 2025 with a population increase of 7,351 residents, which was more than twice as large as runner-up Johnson County (3,239). Allen County (3,235) was the only other Hoosier county to add more than 3,000 residents last year.

Marion County grew by 1,983 residents last year, a 0.2% gain. This is Marion County’s smallest annual increase since 2021 and is far below its population growth of 9,886 the previous year. The state’s most populous county was home to 992,196 residents in 2025, which ranks as the 52nd-largest county in the U.S.  

In all, 66 of Indiana’s 92 counties grew in 2025 (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Population change by county, 2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Rural resurgence begins to wane

One of Indiana’s most notable demographic shifts in recent years has been a population rebound in many rural areas. Between 2010 and 2020, Indiana’s 23 rural counties — or counties that are not designated as being part of either a metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget — declined by an average of 1,067 residents per year as a group.

In the wake of the pandemic, however, rural areas proved attractive to many people on the move, resulting in combined average annual population gains of more than 1,500 residents per year in 2023 and 2024. But as Figure 6 illustrates, growth in rural Indiana fell to roughly 400 residents last year.

Figure 6: Annual population change for Indiana’s rural counties, 1990 to 2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The story is similar for the state’s 25 mid-sized counties — or micropolitan areas. After declining by an average of 347 residents per year during the 2010s, Indiana’s mid-sized counties as a group grew by an average of more than 4,000 residents per year in 2023 and 2024. Growth in mid-sized counties fell to 1,625 last year. Meanwhile, the 44 Indiana counties that are part of a metropolitan area combined to add 36,553 residents in 2025, which accounted for 95% of the state’s growth last year.

For Indiana’s rural and mid-sized counties, slower growth in 2025 was caused by sharp drops in net migration (see Figure 7). The net inflow of residents to rural Indiana declined by 58% last year while net migration to the state’s mid-sized counties was down 65%.

Figure 7: Net migration per 1,000 residents in Indiana by county type

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The difficulty for most of Indiana’s rural and mid-sized counties is that population growth or decline now rests solely on their ability to retain existing residents or attract new ones, as a natural decrease of the population has become the norm in many communities (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: Natural increase per 1,000 residents in Indiana by county type

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

All told, 67 of Indiana’s 92 counties saw net in-migration in 2025, but only 34 counties had a natural increase in population. Use the data visualization in Figure 9 to explore population trends in your county.

Figure 9: Indiana county population trends and components of change